台风“海豚”转向日本冲绳，中国东部沿海威胁缓解（2026年8月）
截至2026年8月4日，台风“海豚”已转向日本冲绳群岛，显著降低此前预测对中国福建和浙江沿海的威胁。预计约8月7日登陆冲绳。以下是华东地区旅客及经日本中转旅客需要了解的信息。
核心观点
Typhoon Dolphin shifted course on August 4, 2026, veering toward Japan's Okinawa Islands instead of making landfall on China's Fujian-Zhejiang coast as previously forecast. The storm reintensified to Category 4 strength (260 km/h winds) and is expected to hit Okinawa around August 7. China's east coast threat has significantly diminished, but travelers transiting through Japan between August 6-9 should prepare for flight disruptions.
报道正文
最后审核： 2026年8月5日 · 影响： 中等（由高下调） · 来源： 日本气象厅、联合台风警报中心、中国气象局
预报变化
台风“海豚”的预报路径出现重大调整。就在8月3日，中国气象局（CMA）和联合台风警报中心（JTWC）曾预测它将在8月5日至7日之间于福建—浙江沿海登陆。该预测现已取消。
据日本气象厅（JMA），“海豚”于8月4日在小笠原群岛的硫磺岛（Iwo To）东北方向转向，完成第四轮眼壁置换循环，并重新增强为四级台风强度。联合台风警报中心（JTWC）目前预测它将在8月7日前后登陆冲绳本岛，随后可能影响奄美群岛，并可能波及九州。
中国气象局于8月4日确认，8月5日夜间之前预计不会影响中国海域；由于路径已明显偏移，直接登陆中国的可能性已大幅降低。中国东部沿海仍可能出现大浪和外围雨带影响，但此前预警的破坏性大风和风暴潮已不再预计发生。
下一步
- If in East China: resume normal itinerary; threat has diminished significantly. 2. If flying through Japan Aug 6-9: check airline travel waivers and rebook now if possible. 3. If you canceled China plans due to earlier Dolphin warnings: contact your airline about rebooking — the threat to China has passed.
可能变化的部分
Typhoon tracks can shift by 100+ km within 24 hours. After Okinawa, Dolphin may curve toward Kyushu or the Korean Peninsula. China's southeast coast remains a secondary possibility if an unexpected westward turn occurs. Check official forecasts daily through August 8.
常见问题
Is Typhoon Dolphin still going to hit China?
No. As of August 4, 2026, the JMA and JTWC forecast landfall in Okinawa, Japan around August 7. A direct China landfall is now unlikely. Peripheral rain and rough seas may still affect China's east coast.
Should I cancel my trip to Shanghai or Xiamen this week?
No. The threat has significantly diminished. Flights to Shanghai Pudong (PVG), Xiamen (XMN), Fuzhou (FOC), and Ningbo (NGB) are expected to operate normally.
Will my flight through Tokyo or Osaka be affected?
Possibly. Okinawa's Naha Airport (OKA) faces highest closure risk Aug 6-8. Tokyo and Osaka are less likely to see direct impact but connecting flights through Okinawa airspace may face delays.